Industry Deep Dives

The ETA Problem: Honest Estimates Beat Confident Ones

Customers do not need a precise arrival time. They need one they can trust. Building ETAs that account for reality, and communicating uncertainty well.

Purushottam Kumar Suman
Purushottam Kumar Suman
Founder & CEO, Drema AI
8 min read
Developer working at a desk with large monitors

Most delivery tracking shows a status label and a date. Customers call anyway, because 'out for delivery' spans nine hours and tells them nothing about whether to leave the house. Support cost is a direct function of how little the tracking page says.

01

An ETA is a distribution, not a time

The honest statement is a window with a confidence, not a single minute the system cannot support. Presenting a precise time and missing it repeatedly destroys trust faster than a wider window that proves reliable. Users forgive imprecision; they do not forgive confident wrongness.

A window you hit beats a precise time you miss. Customers remember which one you were.

02

Build from the remaining sequence

A useful ETA accounts for the driver's actual position, the stops still ahead, historical service time per stop type and current traffic. Static promises based on despatch date ignore everything that has happened since, which is precisely the information the customer wants.

PositionWhere the vehicle actually is now
Remaining stopsAnd their historical service times
TrafficCurrent conditions on the route ahead
ConfidenceCommunicated, not hidden
03

Update proactively when it slips

Delay is tolerable; silence is not. A notification when the window changes, sent before the original window closes, converts a complaint into an inconvenience. The systems that generate the fewest support calls are the ones that tell people bad news early.

04

Address quality caps everything

In Indian cities, addresses are frequently descriptive rather than structured, and geocoding them naively produces routes that are wrong before the driver starts. Capturing a location pin at order time, and learning verified locations for repeat addresses, improves sequencing and ETAs more than better routing algorithms.

05

Respect what the dispatcher knows

Optimisation that ignores practical constraints — this customer only accepts deliveries after 2pm, this lane is impassable for a large vehicle — gets overridden, and once overridden it gets ignored entirely. Encode those constraints or the system will be bypassed.

06

Offline is the normal case

Driver apps run on cheap phones in areas with weak coverage and a dying battery. Scans, proof of delivery and status must be captured locally and synced later, in order. Any design assuming continuous connectivity will produce missing deliveries that did in fact happen.

Window
Not a single precise time
Before
The original window closes, notify
Offline-first
The default for driver apps
Purushottam Kumar Suman
Written by
Purushottam Kumar Suman
Founder & CEO, Drema AI

Founder and CEO of Drema AI. Builds AI systems, SaaS platforms and industry software — and writes about what actually survives production.

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